Coronavirus Epidemic Update 15: Underreporting, Prevention, 24 Day Incubation? (COVID19)


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    Quick links to our other videos on Coronavirus (2019-nCoV):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 14: Hospital spread of infection, WHO allowed in China, N-95 masks:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 13: Li Wenliang, nCoV vs Influenza, Dip in Daily Cases, Spread to Canada:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 12: Unsupported Theories, Pneumonia, ACE2 & nCoV:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 11: Antiviral Drugs, Treatment Trials for nCoV (Remdesivir, Chloroquine):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 10: New Studies, Transmission, Spread from Wuhan, Prevention (2019-nCoV):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 9: Fecal-Oral Transmission, Recovery vs Death Rate:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak Update 8: Travel Ban, Spread Outside of China, Quarantine, & MRSA:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 7: Global Health Emergency Declared, Viral Shedding:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak Update 6: Asymptomatic Transmission & Incubation Period:
    – Coronavirus Update 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza:
    – How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment:
    – Coronavirus Update 3: Spread, Quarantine, Projections, & Vaccine:
    – Coronavirus Symptoms, Diagnosis, Treatment:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak – Transmission & Updates:

  2. Isn't the concept of reinfection scarier? It means that either the person failed to produce antibodies during the first infection (so how exactly did he fight it) or the virus is mutating enough to avoid antibodies within 10 days (ie reinfections may become prevalent and no herd immunity will be able to develop).

    Instead of reinfection, I suspect that the real problem is the inability to properly establish the initial infection date. With so many in the study, some of those are bound to slip through.

    PS I suspect that the incubation period may follow a gamma distribution, given the mean and the range – it's too skewed to be normal.

  3. Are there no children getting this Coronavirus?? I have not seen any kind of stats or explanations concerning children. Anyone know?

  4. Is China reporting those found dead in their homes. Videos show no one on their streets, so why would you think homes are being searched?

  5. is it possible pollution particles spreads corona virus and possibly why china has higher contamination of virus vs western countries?

  6. Under reporting – and some under informing too? I read reports of lack of medical supplies, such as masks. But some basic information about what can and what cannot perform air filtration, might be good. There will be a range of respirators with canisters for filtering this and that – many of these may well filter the virus, since they are designed to filter substances at molecule level. So if you have a cartridge which is designed to filter organic vapors, could you use it to filter the virus? Would be nice to know. Does it follow that whatever I use to filter, that thing becomes a repository of the the thing I'm filtering? Would imagine many things would kill the virus(if it really is alive) accumulated in filtering mediums? Just questions – I have no answers.

  7. The thing is we have seen consistently the mortality rate at 20% from people coming out of the other side. So In a few wks as we see more people recovering we will also see more people dying.
    Atm around 100 a day but in a few wks it could be around 500+.
    But this is only the first wave and we are only ‘protecting’ people from the direct source.
    I believe the second and more deadly wave will come from another source. Which will probably be Africa. With its huge Chinese contingent and no reported cases atm. So people will holiday and move around in places like this unaware that it’s there. Because of the long incubation rate, lack of testing facilities and cramming of populations.
    I think we will be led under false pretences soon and think we’ve got a handle on it, then the second wave will hit hard in maybe a couple of months. Just as we think it’s almost stabilized. Hopefully it won’t mutate to be deadlier like the Spanish flu did.

  8. Your 24 day incubation explanation makes little sense. The first 10 day incubation would result in illness at day 10 unless you were inclined not to get sick (natural immunity). If this was the case you couldn't get sick from the second exposure at day 10. The most likely explanation is either a true 24 incubation, or a 14 day incubation from the second exposure, which is actually your first inoculation i.e. the first exposure didn't result in inoculation at all.

  9. Dr. Seheult, I would like to thank you for providing us with medical analyst in your case studies. I find your information helping and think that it's making me a little smarter each time I watch your material. I have a couple of questions that I have not been able to get answers for and was hoping you can provide your insight.

    #1. It's clear that the virus can be spread when a person is asymptomatic. We understand about the coughing and sneezing, however what about tobacco smoke and vaping? I've looked up the composition of exhaled smoke and vapor and there is liquid particles. If this is a fact, why isn't this addressed as a way of spreading the virus? To put a bit more context to my question, I live in a city where people do not respect the "do not smoke" signs and smoke in front of clinics, restaurants, and businesses. People smoke anywhere and everywhere.

    #2. You've talked about the N-95 masks, however not all doctors / nurses are wearing them. Shouldn't that be a concern as the medical staff are examining people with cold/flu like symptoms and may not be infected but are not infected by the staff?

    #3. The latest case in the UK, the British man from Brighton, who was asymptomatic. The UK went from a confirmed 8 cases and 0 death to a "major outbreak" severity. Why would the UK increase their severity level so high when Brighton is less than 300,000 people and bigger cities (millions) are still in the "no panic" mode? Is there something the UK knows that the rest of the world doesn't?

  10. The larger case had less admitted to intensive care… because the larger case had already filled up intensive care? There is more than we know happening over there and there is no way we can assume something.

  11. nCOV2019 has a new name now CODIV19. My question is why this new disease with clear origin and high likely patient zero from wuhan. Not named where it originates -Wuhan.

  12. It still seems strange to me that no one here in Africa has been infected yet… China pretty much owns the continent, always here but not one infected yet? Don't get me wrong, I am glad that there is nothing here yet, or in SA yet. But it seems strange that there is nothing recorded here.

  13. @MedCram How many of these patients tested positive for both influenza the Corona virus?

    Is it possible that hospitals test 1st for influenza, see a positive result, and send them home where they also have Corona?

  14. Looking forward to next episode, considering my husband and I are on the ground in China. Spend most of our time indoors now, but I'd like to be prepared. – Thanks

  15. You can not build hospitals in days to recover thousands of infected people , but you can build laboratories and incinerators in that period of time.

  16. If you search well enough you'll find that there's actually someone with 41 days of incubation period. That's just insane, maybe just like you said, a reinfection.

  17. What about the cure called one cup one life which Iran has given over the internet by their top doctors from their NASA program

  18. 1099 cases in 552 hospital?
    Then sees videos the hospital is overflowing, they're making new hospitals and repurpose dorms, sports centers into quarentine areas.

  19. I did some maths…
    Expected Casualties (as of Feb 12, 2020): I've been continuing to work on the numbers for the death toll of nCoV (now "COVID-19" according to the Worthless Health Organization). Adding to, and pruning my data as best I can. Right now I'm thinking about 257 million globally is the likely amount of deaths to expect (+/- 20%??).

    One critical piece of data I was missing was an accurate account of the % of people who required ICU care, not just hospital care. We now know that's about 5%. If they get that care, their death rate can be dropped to about 1-2% (or 20-40% of those admitted to ICU care). But with the contagion rate, we can assume that as this progresses, the vast majority of those who require ICU care, will not get it, and the majority of those patients will die (I'm guessing 4 out of 5 instead of 1-2 out of 5). Also a small number of those who need hospital care but not ICU care, will likely worsen to the point they die due to lack of basic hospital care (I'm guessing about 1-2% out of that 13% block, I'm going with 1.5% there). I also stopped using "8 billion", in favor of the more precise 7.8 billion for global population. Assuming there's fairly robust efforts to contain the spread (putting downward pressure on the R0) in some countries, but nonexistent efforts in other countries, I think we're looking at about 60% of the global population infected before it fully recedes.

    At 5.5% CFR in 60% of 7.8 billion… that's 257 million deaths globally. It could mutate, it could change in transmission rate as weather warms up, and we're somewhat at the mercy of CCP lies, bogus "leaked" exaggerated claims, WHO politically correct babbling, and media "downplay". So it's a VERY rough estimate. But 257m is my Vegas spot. At +20% that's 308m, at -20% thats 205m.

    Or for simple math in any particular country: 5.5% CFR x 60% spread = 3.3% of the population at large. Round down (moderately) if your country has robust health care facilities, and enforces strict countermeasures (quarantines, mandated masks, closed public transit & public gatherings), or is more rural. Or round up (moderately) if your country has or is likely to enforce none of these things, and/or is more urban.

    IF there's a very large number of undocumented cases, who are not dying… things could look considerably less grim.
    Still horrible, but less horrible. That's really the only major poorly defined detail in the math. Well that, and the possible long term evolution of the disease, reinfection potential/severity, etc. I think it will burn itself out, but I could be wrong.

    Those most at risk of dying will the older, infants, pregnant mothers, smokers (and to a lesser extent vapers), and anyone with a respiratory or heart complication, or a compromised immune system. But it's going to kill plenty of healthy 20 year olds. And those most at risk of contracting the virus will be people who engage in a large amount of public interaction through work or otherwise, and/or those live in more urban population concentrations. Also, there will be a significant number of survivors who suffer some degree of permanent lung, heart, or brain damage, from their harrowing scrape with hypoxemia. Based on this virus's spread capacity, the bulk of the death toll will be in the first half of 2020. Origin point is almost certainly the WIV bio lab in Wuhan China (plenty of data on that if there's interest). This will have a % of population death toll very similar to the spanish flu of 1918, with a moderately lower CFR, but a somewhat wider spread. Worth noting, reported "case counts" out of China are irrelevant… It has self sustaining un-contained epicenters in many parts of China, and 2-3 other countries now. If it's "loose", it's loose, and it will follow a mathematical progression globally. The case count in China is just a possibly accurate or inaccurate glimpse into what week of the mathematical progression we're in. To be fair to China, once they got serious, they did all that they possibly could to contain it.

    Side note, China's claim that the virus spread has plateaued are largely due to their decision the other day to no longer count those infected, but asymptomatic, as an official case. This will of course drop their case counts, but it doesn't reflect things getting any better. It's basically China's very subtle admission that the battle for containment in China has largely failed. They'll keep trying, so as to minimize the death toll, but the genie is out of the bottle. To be fair, they may be trying to avoid killing people with false positive tests, and their availability of tests kits may be severely limited vs. the number of infected anyway. But to claim a plateau based on this change in procedure is just nonsense.

  20. Dear DR. Seheult (medcram) PLEASE discuss the PROPER WAY to Quarantine these SHIPS and FLIGHTS full of possible infected people is to Divide them into smaller groups of 20 – 30 people. In separate rooms of course like one of our ex military bases. Each barrack full of 30 people could than re-enter society after 14 days of being negative. In a public space like apartment or ship the ventilation and constant contact with staff will regularly run into new cases.

  21. CAN the QUARANTINED people put a makeshift filter over their A/C Duct with a bleach or Lysol disinfectant applied to kill the incoming germs, bacteria, or virus?

  22. In my life, first it was swine flu, then ebola, then bird flu, then SARS, now corona virus.
    While I know rational perspective is the last thing governments, the the medical business, and the news business want to foster, consider these facts andadjust your feelings (if not your thoughts) about corona virus accordingly.
    Chinese dead from dirty air in 2016: 4,000 deaths a day
    America: typically killed with guns in the U.S. in a day (about 85) / 5217 died from choking /
    Worldwide: In 2013 falls resulted in 556,000 deaths.

    Gee, I wonder why are we sheeple being told to fear the least fearful thing there is?

  23. The country with billions is under staffing, the country with brains is out to lunch, and the whole mishap is a mission of un rescue. Unacceptable!

  24. People need to get extremely serious here. This isn't a major pandemic or even epidemic. 1100 people have died in China from the Coronavirus. To put that into perspective, of the 1.4 + billion people who live in China 0.000078% have died from the virus or 1100. To put this in the even more perspective for 1% of the population to be affected in China alone, 14,000,000 people are going to have to die.

    Nearly every single one of the people who have died from this virus are elderly, or have other health issues and or are already sick from something else. It really doesn't affect the young or healthy people. Yes. Everyone within the realm in the spectrum that I've listed above can be counted as those who have contracted the virus. But the ones who are dying or the elderly, people with existing health conditions or people who are already sick from something else.

    They're using fear. To control you International travel has already been blocked and or suspended all together. And who knows what else they're going to come up with?

  25. Zhong Nanshan was at the forefront of China's fight against SARS. He came out of retirement to help combat NCP. Absolute hero.

  26. Thank you Dr Seheult, know you are the only Dr with info I can trust Wish more people would SUBSCRIBE and click the like button (thumbs up icon)

  27. The WHO has been let in. I’d like to know whom from the WHO was let in? Were they allowed to travel freely? Are they going to be reporting honestly.?
    Sorry but I don’t trust the WHO to report this without bias. They’ve already proven to downplay the actual severity.

  28. Question?! Can you give us/me some insight for people like myself, that have lupus/Graves /Autoimmune disorders? What are the numbers or chances of contracting the corona virus 🦠?! Through contact with people that have just traveled out of the US. Or just simple contact. I watch you on the daily. So thank you! For informing me/us as best you can.

  29. MedCram – Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY – I absolutely love and apprechiate your posting articles you read before you talk about something, stating things,…etc. Absolutely my most favorite coronavirus update chanell! Keep up sharing your knowledge! You are doing God's work SIR! Subbed for life <3

  30. Millions of people have been talking and writing about coronaviruses for weeks. So what if government employees want to call it something else. Normal people will keep calling it coronavirus.

  31. Just wondering, how did they do a blind placebo with ARDS? Wouldn’t the patient and/or researchers know if they were in prone/being ventilated/being paralyzed or not?

  32. Just an observation unrelated to topic. Minute 4:43…. Why does the paper write "41.09 % were female" instead of "58.01%, the majority, were male " I find it confusing, since it emphasizes the minority instead of majority.

  33. Would it be a good strategy to have people get this virus so it is in our coding to fight it off in the future. The thought is that it is likely to surface again in some years time. It might be as virulent and even more potent. If this is the case wouldn't it be more strategic to already having our immune system be exposed to the virus?

  34. These Medcram videos are the most rational I have found on said subject. Thailand medical news and Dr. Sircus (for natural treatment protocols) are also helpful (though more fear.)

  35. Great informative videos, however don't bother going to the comment section it's full of tin foil hat conspiracy theories.

  36. I hope they can come up with treatments for those poor people soon. I won't forget that report that showed a woman crying and screaming from a balcony for help because her husband couldn't breathe. There was no hospital available and so they were getting no help. 🙁

  37. I wonder if the American citizens brought from China will be released after 14 days ? Keep them for a month there for everyone’s sake 🙏🏼

  38. Grain of Salt Confirmed Cases Data: think soon an antibody test will be available that is faster easier and low cost. Then, they will be able to canvas population and use statistical methods to determine how many mild cases are missing.

  39. would it be possible at any chance to satisfy a patient's request whose situation is not critical asking for an antiviral agent such as the ones which were working in the compassionate use in Thailand? is that in practice in any healthcare association when it comes to new epidemic outbreaks?

  40. China has decided that positive cases that are asymptomatic are no longer being reported as confirmed cases to the WHO or the world. Thumbs up this for awareness.

  41. My assessment is that in China out of 6250 patients 5133 recovered, 1117 died. That's a mortality rate of 17.8%. Outside China it appears there is only one death so far recorded from 523 known cases. So there is cause for concern and hope that actions taken internationally will inhibit the spread of this virus sufficiently.

  42. But a symptomatic people are the super spreaders. They still shed the virus and shed it to more cuz they are out and about not knowing they are killing others who can’t handle the virus

  43. The world has been bracing itself for another pandemic…… has now arrived. The severity of it is being massively under reported by all the MSM as too not cause alarm.

  44. It’s time Revolt against the communist Chinese government

    So sad to hear about the brave Chinese journalist and that Doctor who warned about this virus both were prosecuted 😡It’s time to revolt against the Chinese communist government they are spending all the money on grabbing land of other countries and spending on making new weapons to threaten other countries but no money to help the poor Chinese citizens …revolt people of China 🇨🇳Its worst than Hitler times .. Wr pray for you ..The Workd must stop doing business with them and stop flights till they can control this virus

  45. So apparently the number of cases jumped by 14,000 today, because of the different reporting method? I guess they finally decided to report the real numbers

  46. So only today the 13th The Chinese government admitted to A: lying about the figures so deaths are now at least 240 doubling since yesterday. B, Deaths are increasing the decrease was mis reporting to lie about the issue. C. It wasnt Snake, Bat tar tra consumption that caused the outbreak it was their own Bio chemical lab in Wuhan and it escaped (no doubt bio weaponising). Chinas answer to Trumps sanctions no doubt which blew up in their own faces.

  47. cant trust or believe anything that the CCP or the WHO ,say to me or you,,this is the Wuhan virus and it will forever be and no matter what they or anyone else says,,it is world wide pandemic .

  48. REAL STORY : The Chinese government was manufacturing the Virus in a Bio Lab in Wuhan, so they can send it to WIPE OUT THE UYGHURS !!! ; That's why Chinese President Xinjiang, "appologized" to them and asked them to pray for China. He was not aware of that Virus Bio Weapon being produced for that purpose. He didn't really apologize. World leaders and Intelligence agencies are aware of this, that's why they are waiting for China to provide the Antidote.

  49. Can you update us on the new virus in brazil “Yara” and the ebola epidemic if you have any information on that, thanks

  50. لو الولايات المتحده تحقق بموضوع فايروس كورونا مثل التحقيق الدقيق بالقناة المشهوره ID ستكتشف حقيقة مسببات مرض كورونا من الألف للياء

  51. If we look at percentages of current infection cases and current closed cases, the percentage of people serious/dying is between 15% – 18%. Are not these the numbers we should focus on??? Now let us increase these numbers by at least 10 times and the leaks from funeral homes in Hubei province claiming mass fatalities, seem to match up!!!

  52. 限界新型コロナの件

  53. why is the death count for corona so high in china but only 2 death reported in the cases reported outside of china ? some thing does not make any sense to me….

  54. Why did China withhold news of the spread of the virus? Why did they not allow western scientists to gain the access to the virus? Was China weaponizing the virus and it got out of hand? Did they delay it long enough to release the original virus on their population to hide the weaponized version? I smell a rat. Is there anyone left that does serious investigation rather than push the narrative?

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